. Only four contenders in this year's prospective Derby field have a Beyer Speed Figure within five points of co-tops Taiba and Messier:Epicenter with a 102 and Zandon, Zozos and Simplification, each of whom have a 98 Beyer to their credit. We expect next year to go a lot different than this year because when you do right by a horse, you build a better product going forward. Daily Racing Form provides the top 25 race horses ranked by earnings. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. For the purpose of this particular preview we'll just . Bet with your head, not over it. A 90 at Saratoga is the same quality of performance as a 90 at the Ferndale Fair.Moreover, a figure of 90 in a six-furlong race is the same quality of performance as a 90 at 1 miles. But it was a 5-year-old who had the fastest race of the weekend, at least according to two sources. If you are a casual sports fan getting ready to check out the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, you are going to hear plenty of talk about Beyer Speed Figures. A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? p: (800) 647-6571 The top Brisnet Speed Rating entering last year's Kentucky Derby was a 102 posted by the trio of Rock Your World, Essential Quality and Highly Motivated. By his theory, a horse earning an 85 Beyer at Golden Gate Fields going seven furlongs and a horse earning an 85 Beyer at nine furlongs at Santa Anita basically have the same ability. Odds Shark does not target an audience under the age of 18. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe, These 19 horses have Saturday's highest speed figures. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. In the only . font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; (Of course, all horses have distances they prefer, and a sprinter who earns a big figure at six furlongs is unlikely to duplicate it in the Kentucky Derby.) Reach for the superlatives: Flightline and jockey Flavien Prat after a truly astonishing performance in the Pacific Classic. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts. By comparison, American Pharoah earned Beyers of 105 for his wins in the Arkansas Derby and the Kentucky Derby. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! Brisnet speed ratings are courtesy ofBrisnet. Last year, he was on fire. Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. 2022 Preakness Stakes morning-line odds, picks: Racing insider offers betting strategy for second leg of Triple Crown One week after hitting the Pick 4 at Belmont Park for $1,851, Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir just revealed his picks and bets for the Preakness Stakes on Saturday at Pimlico Race Course [5][6][7] Easy Goer also routinely ran in the 120 Beyer Speed Figure range on a regular basis in his races, while arch-rival Sunday Silence did so rarely and only when it was required for him to prevail. Epicenter has just recently won the Risen Star stakes by about three lengths with a Beyer Speed Figure of 98 points. As of 02.26.23. Stay up-to-date with the best from America's Best Racing! Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Those who live and die by the speed figures may give Early Voting a chance to upset Epicenter andSkippylongstockinga shot to hit the board, but neither runner has any previous figure that is strong enough to lean on. So a high BSF ceiling is notable, but also consistency is a plus too to battle possible negative regression. Six of the last eight horses to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby have come from California. Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts. 60 Broad St. 83. Beyer Speed Figures will sometimes be revised after they are originally published. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. border: 1px solid #CCC; Conversely, a Belmont MSW favorite with a figure of 90 will be formidable.Owners and trainers can employ pars to find proper spots for their horses. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. font-weight: bold; I don't think he has any distance limitations.. In Picking Winners, Beyer claimed a breakthrough when a study of claiming races at Calder Race Course showed Beyer that 1:13 for six furlongs was equally fast to 1:26.1 at seven; from there, Kovitz's math was used to generate perfectly accurate parallel-time and beaten-lengths charts, which Beyer then used to make par times for classes, against which each race is measured to determine if the track is faster or slower than normal. Slew's Tiz Whiz Named Washington's 2022 Horse Of The Year. In the Demoiselle, she ran a Beyer Speed Figure of 79 and an Equibase Speed Figure of 80, several lengths slower than the figures earned by the country's top 2-year-old filly, Echo Zulu. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. With the 2022 Breeders' Cup fast approaching we take A look at the historical numbers for each of the 14 championship races. The average winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Kentucky Derby is 109. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. Mo Donegal ran a non-threateningfifth in the Kentucky Derby after his Wood victory. Timeform Ratings go a step further in trying to be both accurate and objective. 97. Beyer Speed Figures had him with a top of 79 as a 2-year-old, but he earned a 94 for the San Vicente and a 98 for the San Felipe, so he's . In 1963, Taulbot sent his parallel-time chart to Beyer's Harvard classmate, Sheldon Kovitz, who adjusted it to account for velocity (e.g., a horse who runs six furlongs in 1:09 will run its seventh furlong faster than one who runs 1:13, and so forth). Speed Figures: Un Ojo improved his best Equibase Speed Figure 14 points to a 91 for the Rebel Stakes, and he boosted his career-best Beyer Speed Figure 13 points to an 84. Every race since has been shorter. Beyer Speed Figures have become an industry standard for the comparison of one horse's performance to another. 1 . Because multiple horses are in each race, as opposed to two teams (binary) in a sport (or chess, which uses the Elo rating system to make power ratings), the task of adjusting power ratings is much more complex. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Red Bank, NJ 07701, p: (732) 747-8060 Epicenter is the only other horse in the field to . Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! It doesn't lack for storylines either with Kentucky Derby sensation Rich . The figures are straightforward: the greater the number, the quicker the horse. Beyer Sire Performance Standings offer a metric for measuring stallion performance beyond wins and earnings. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. Sell. with a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, best of any contender and second fastest among 3-year-olds this year. Beyer's subsequent research added the last piece of the puzzle. [22] However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. Kentucky Derby 2022: Why your horse can - and can't - win Saturday's race . Epicenter's effort in the Risen Star earned him a 98 Beyer and Brisnet. Seven of the 12 earned a BSF in the Kentucky Derby of 103 or higher. Messier posted his on Feb. 6, 2022 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3), a 1 1/16 mile run which Messier won. 7 Winners on Monday! padding: 4px; 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. }. APPLETON - Change can be difficult, but Appleton East guard Sammi Beyer is taking a positive approach to her senior season. Obviously the racing surface at Tampa Bay Downs that day was playing slightly faster. If the top contenders in a Belmont MSW field regularly run in the 70s, the race may be a good spot for first-time starters or other entrants with no recent form. Formal Gold ran successive numbers of 126, 124 and 125 in 1997 in the Whitney Handicap (actually losing by a nose to Will's Way), Iselin Handicap and Woodward Stakes. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . border: 1px solid #CCC; 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. 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Longtime Washington Post columnist Andy Beyer created the Beyer Speed Figures, first appearing in his groundbreaking handicapping book Picking Sportsbooks in 1975. Speed figures are normalized numerical representations of final times based on relative track speeds, as it is rare for tracks to produce the exact final . 3-Year-Old Female Older Male Older Female. Where and when, I don't know yet. Medina Spirit posted a 101 Brisnet Speed Rating in last year's Kentucky Derby. font-weight: bold; After they are originally published field looks generally faster than the 2021 field at the same distance in 1:43.04 performance. ( +800 ) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby 109! Brisnet Speed Rating in last year 's Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than 2021. Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card: 1px solid # CCC ; 2023 Arnold Palmer Bets... 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