It is equally impressive to see that the unemployment rate remained at a very low level even as the state added over 52,400 people to the workforce. One of the many reasons, and perhaps one of the most important reasons folks are moving to Utah, is because this great state boasts one of the strongest economies and job markets in the Nation. Of all the major U.S. metros, Miami was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to relocate between Nov '22 - Jan '23. Average home value: $562,693. Half a million people from one state alone. The median days on the market was 70 days, up 47 year over year., The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market andwhether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Will it pop or deflate?, A U.S. housing bubble is brewing. The housing market in Utah is still highly competitive since the population continues to grow, the job market remains strong, and the quality of life is high. Although demand has softened compared to last year, pushing home price growth into single-digit territory for the first time in 12 months, moderation in home price growth may encourage more buyers to return to the market in the months ahead, and may also be welcome news for sellers aiming to sell and buy at the same time., Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Branca said hes struck by how wild todays home buying reality is. Powell, the Feds chairman, has indeed called it a pandemic frenzy housing bubble, but he and other experts all have consistently said its not like 2007 and 2008. AirDNA vs. Mashvisor: Which One Is the Better Source of Airbnb Data? The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. The music stopped. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. Its going to be tough for real estate agents. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. I am not concerned by this and expect the market to moderate as it comes to terms with higher financing costs. He has taken his life experiences working with people and transitioned into helping families and individuals make the very best decisions when it comes to real estate. Buyers finally have market power. If you divided your housing price by your annual income, it was 2.6. How can I get a free valuation of a home in Utah? between 2021-12-31 and 2022-12-31. Check! Thank you for registering with FastExpert. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022 , he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the. Utah may be the 13th-largest state in the country by area, but it is also the 11th-least densely populated. Its more likely that as mortgage rates continue to decline, the market will find a solid floor in the summer and prices will resume their upward trend as we move into the fall. So its really tough to say, but I think its going to be minimal negative, or negative positive, Yun said. As Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, Matthew Gardner is responsible for analyzing and interpreting economic data and its impact on the real estate market on both a local and national level. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. One will often find him drawing, doing toy photography, or dabbling in other geeky stuff when he's not helping investors make smarter decisions. Statewide, housing . The median price of a home in the United States is currently $518,200.. The lights shut off. So Branca said he made the decision to back out of the market, hoping to maybe consider buying again when interest rates and potentially prices come down. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Utah has seen a significant increase in population over the past decade, which will likely help with the influx of home listings once everyone gets used to the new lending rates. Median List Price By Bedroom Count Median List Price Compared To Nearby Cities Terms . FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. South Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report, North Carolina Housing Market 2023 Report. So unless we have a real serious recession, I think prices have some support given our economy.. This speedometer reflects the state of the regions real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. Mashvisors Utah housing market forecast 2022 and pretty much all other real estate forecasts for the year have identified Salt Lake City metro area as the countrys hottest housing market-beating other burgeoning areas like Boise ID and Spokane WA. Alfred is a content writer with years of experience writing about the US housing market. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. Although predicting the future is always an exercise of caution, it is unlikely that the Utah housing market will collapse in 2023. Like, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been that (price) five or 10 years ago.. Families flourish in Utah. A good indication of the markets strength and inventory is the average number of days properties stay listed. For September of 2022 Utah saw the median sale price remain flat compared to August and is still up almost 6% from 2021. The National Association of Realtors, however, is predicting 2023 will be a year the market will regain normalcy, expecting mortgage rates to stabilize, home sales to sag and prices to moderate. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. The question is, how far will that correction run and what will it mean for home prices in 2023? Connect with an Agent At an annual rate of 2.6%, this was the slowest pace of growth since the state started recovering jobs post-COVID. Yeah, thats a valid point, Wood replied, drawing laughs from the crowd. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. In January 2023, there were 8,551 homes for sale in Utah, up 81.9% year over year.The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Months supply of inventory: 3 up from 1 in September 2021. Yes! I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. Joseph Branca, left, makes a drink while his partner Scotty Fletcher makes dinner at their apartment they rent in Salt Lake City on Thursday, Dec. 29, 2022. On average, the number of homes sold was down 34.7% year over year and there were 1,769 homes sold in January this year, down 2,712 homes sold in January last year. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. Home prices skyrocket amid early pandemic months due to bidding wars and a shortage of active listings. Mashvisor is a website that offers real estate investors access to several tools and a wide range of updated and accurate data to help make the process of finding a suitable investment property faster and easier. On average, homes in Cache County sell after 57 days on the market compared to 12 days last year. The fi read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! However, there is no denying that the rapid increase in interest rates, with more likely in the work before inflation reaches a targeted rate of 2%, has significantly affected it. Eskic, however, is predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. But what about the increase in interest rates? Otherwise, the story is similar to many other states, with the number of homes sold decreasing, days on market increasing, and almost half of the listings dropping their price this month (48.9%). The number of newly listed homes was 1,954 and up 1.4% year over year. Since Utah house prices are higher than the national average, it should come as no surprise that the demand has gone down noticeably since July 2022. How far will they fall? San Francisco was the most searched for destination among homebuyers looking to leave, followed by Los Angeles, New York, Washington and Chicago. We dont have that.. In January 2023, home prices in Utah were down 3.0% compared to last year, selling for a median priceof $518,200. The direction and pace at which home prices are changing are indicators of the strength of the housing market and whether homes are becoming more or less affordable. Joining Good Morning Utah to share what to expect for Utah's housing market for 2022 is Ryan Kirkham with Summit Sotheby's and Utah realestate.com. However, like we saw during the pandemic housing frenzy, that could all vary depending on the region. 2020 further increased that number to almost 73% as median home sales prices reached $380,000. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. . And while the days of sub-3% rates are gone, they are not expected to go exorbitantly high. While at the beginning of the year, homebuyers could purchase a home at an interest rate of around 3%, currently borrowers are looking at more than 7%. , Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. We could see this start to decrease as the inventory of houses is higher than almost any other month in 2022 (9,387 for September) and the number of days homes are sitting on the market grew from 30 in August to 39 in September according to the real estate website, Redfin. This would place . How is the real estate market in Utah? There was a 98.0% sale-to-list price, down 2.7 points year over year. Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. The states economy is still performing very well, but this is not enough to push the housing market forward at the pace we saw during the height of the pandemic. The median sale price for a house in West Valley City was $436,500 in September 2022, representing a 2.9% increase in year-over-year comparisons. In the beginning, Branca said his home hunt was exciting, kind of frenzied, certainly, but still manageable. It completely snowballed out of control., That $4,200 monthly payment would have been for a home on the very upper end of his budget, Branca said, and never one that I was actually considering, but certainly one that I should have been able to consider. Affirming this projection, Wood asserts . In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. While Utah is below the national average in many areas, home prices have managed to remain strong. Hang in there. If they hadnt been so aggressive in 2020 and 2021, wed be talking about unemployment now rather than inflation. He also noted it was really Congress that juiced the economy with so much one-time stimulus money, not the Fed. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. There were only 31.8% of homes that had price drops, up from 10.0% of homes in January last year. These numbers are nothing to worry about, as they indicate a return to a more balanced housing market in Utah. Utahs housing experts disagree over how much home prices will decline, though they remain confident that 2023 will not bring a full blown, 2007-like crash, and that Utahs strong job economy will still largely insulate it from any negative impacts of a recession. Theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. Eskic has a more bearish outlook. In addition, inflation and the looming specter of a recession are also taking a toll on Utah residents buying power. Dont focus on the loss you may believe you are experiencing if you sell today. If one were to understand what the Utah housing market forecast 2022 is implying here is that renters are facing bigger challenges of acquiring their own properties. Neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash that sent the global economy tumbling into the Great Recession. NerdWallet reports that 2022 will see a low end of 3,4% according to Fannie Mae and will reach 4% by the end of the year as predicted by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. Book an appointment today. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. As mortgage rates are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08%. However, as the Federal Reserve Bank started using its economic power to fight back against inflation, which has reached a forty-year high, by increasing interest rates, the Utah housing market is beginning to show signs of a significant slowing down. Industry experts and analysts have recently released their different takes on various US housing markets. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. In 2022, that was Joseph Brancas reality, along with plenty of other Utahns who wanted to join the mad dash to homeownership, but ultimately ended up walking away. Here are the latest figures, The Wests housing crunch began over a decade ago. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, average home prices fell in every area other than Summit County, where they rose .8%. Site Map | FastExpert, inc. 2021. Realtor.com recently named the Salt Lake City region as the expected No. By Sarah Burns of The Salt Lake Local Real Estate Group, October 21, 2021 Utah State #2 in Housing Price Increases Utah's equity gains sat at 28.3% between 2020 and 2021, making Utah #2 in housing . 36 days on the market. Additionally, both Wood and Eskic predict Utahs estimated 31,000-unit housing shortage will continue to keep home prices high, even if the state sees some price drops, so they expect Utahs housing affordability crisis to remain a persistent issue that is pricing out more than 75% of Utahns from affording the states median-priced home. Imagine earning over $100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able to swing it. Considering how crazy the market was in 2020 and 2021, here is the Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition. Are there enough homes for sale to meet buyer demand? Preston was born in Provo, Utah, and raised in Spanish Fork, Utah. West Valley City is assimilated to a suburb of Salt Lake City, but it is also the second most populous city in the state, with 140,230 residents. over year. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. Median sale price: $611,600. We go back to the 70s, for example, Eskic said. Price forecasts for this year (are) somewhat uncertain, Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, told the Salt Lake Board of Realtors crowd on Friday. After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally in home prices in 2023, said the National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun. Dont wait. How could I possibly give an objective opinion? This trend continued through the pandemic resulting in record-high home prices and rental rate growth. That was also a time when the national economy and Utah faced a struggling job market, Wood noted. But Wood is more bullish than Eskic. Utahs housing experts continue to shy away from the word crash, since what happened in 2022 is still nothing like what happened after the 2006 housing bubble popped. 10 Best Neighborhoods in the Nashville Real Estate Market 2019. However, this increase in inventory is not due to newly listed homes but properties staying on the market longer, as only 3,764 homes were listed in September 2022, 20% less than the year before. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points yearover year. When we look at just how much weve peaked earlier this year, I think well start seeing negative year-over-year readings late winter, early spring, Eskic said. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. By Eskics calculations, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home as of the third quarter of 2022. Utah Home Sales In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. I call it the great debate, Ivory said. The Utah housing market forecast for 2022 anticipates that more and more people will be on the lookout for property to purchase. In January 2023, 17.5% of homes in Utah sold below list price, down 27.8 points year. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter. Median listing prices were 3.6% lower than in the third quarter, suggesting that higher financing costs may have created a price ceiling. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. Historically, even if the nation experiences economic troubles, Wood said Utahs strong employment economy typically makes the state resilient. This would place . The average months of supply is 3 months, up 3 year over year. Find an experienced, trusted local real estate agent with FastExpert. It has been one of if not the most competitive markets in the US in 2021. Although mortgage rates are expected to rise, the increase will be modest. According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: As in many other places across the country, Utah home prices have increased faster than usual in the aftermath of the COVID-19 outbreak. Short-term correction followed by continued growth and price increases. According to data collected in September 2022, the latest available at the time of writing, the median sale price for a house in Utah stood at $533,500, representing a 5.6% increase compared to September 2021. Then everything changed. Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. The impact of the correction on Utahs real estate market should be softened by its robust economy and limited home inventory. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! If you would like to buy a house in this dynamic state, the best time to house hunt is in the early spring (April) when inventory is at its highest in preparation for the hot summer real estate market, and Utah house prices are at their lowest. Renters have seen a steady, heady increase in rents over the past year, making their window for buying even more narrow. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States. If you find it useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. Heres why, Buying a house? Utah Housing Market at a Glance September 2022 Even this far into 2022 with the mortgage rate hikes, Utah remains one of the hottest markets. Contact Us, Real Estate Blog In addition to his day-to-day responsibilities, Matthew sits on the Washington State Governors Council of Economic Advisors; chairs the Board of Trustees at the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington; and is an Advisory Board Member at the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington where he also lectures in real estate economics. Therefore, the impact of increasing interest rates has been felt more in the state than in other parts of the country. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. When you look around at those who are not in as comfortable of a position, well, what options do they have at all?. All Rights Reserved, What will 2023 bring to the housing market? It just seems so odd to be in such a comfortable position and not have that as a practical option. All of this, of course, depends on how local markets fair. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. So (many have) stopped new construction and consequently weve seen new production just fall off, Wood said. Historically, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with less adverse effects than the other 49 States in the Union. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. As of November 2022, four consecutive 75 bps increases brought mortgage rates over 7%, reaching their highest level since April 2008 and standing over twice higher as the same time last year. While Eskic said he agrees with Wood about Utahs strong job market, but were operating in a different environment because of the rates and prices.. After prices peaked in May, Salt Lake Countys median single family home price hit $650,000. Salt Lake Housing Market Forecast with Real Estate Prices for 2032: August 2032: Open: 666286: Min: 635950: He graduated from Spanish Fork High School. All rights reserved. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. The bull market that has been in place for quite some time appears to have lost its momentum. However, despite the increased inventory in the past months, there were only three months of housing supply available in September 2022, still a long shot away from the five to six months required for a balanced market. Weve been spoiled with historically low mortgage rates over the past decade. Months supply of inventory: 3 - up from 1 in September 2021. Then the rates hit and they were left holding the bag, Eskic said. Look at housing prices, they were sticky. The top 5 states homebuyers searched to move to were Florida, Texas, Tennessee, Arizona, and South Carolina while California, New York, District Of Columbia, Illinois, and Massachusetts were the top 5 states homebuyers searched to move from. Park City Data If you ask Perry, they have a silver lining. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. A home is listed for sale in West Jordan on Wednesday, Dec. 21, 2022. Here are Utahs metropolitan areas with the hottest housing markets for volume. Some, however, say the market needs this correction to reach a more healthy equilibrium between sellers and buyers as well as healthier affordability. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. Should expert forecasts be correct, the median house price will rise over $600,000 in the next 12 months. This, combined with higher mortgage rates, likely impacted sales in the fourth quarter. The rental market is not affordable and is experiencing high rental prices. Roughly two-thirds of the population live in the Wasatch Front in the north-central part of the state, which includes the capital city, Salt Lake City. The 2021 Utah housing market will be long remembered for its record-breaking price increases. Therefore, with the current small but significant price change, a seller will realize enormous overall growth and equity increase. Do not sell or share my personal information. I dont think were going to get a recession now, in Utah., Eskic, smiling, said he and Wood should make a bet on stage. How to Find Multi Family Homes for Sale in 2020. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. The mortgage rates will likely continue to rise compared to what they are today. We also observe a lengthening of the time spent on the market and a decrease in both new listings and sales, which points towards a general slowing down of the Utah housing market. Matthew has over 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. Join Us Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. Like Salt Lake City, the West Valley City housing market is competitive, with listed properties receiving four offers on average and selling after 41 days on the market. I like the word contraction better than collapse, said Jim Wood, director of research and science and the Ivory-Boyer senior fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute. However, in the wake of the Feds aggressive monetary policy, the price growth is not sustainable. We hope that by publishing this Utah housing market forecast 2022 edition, we have shed some light and provided insight into some of the questions and concerns prospective investors and buyers may have. can also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than sellers are listing them. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. However, during the Great Recession, prices declined for years before accelerating again. Price growth rates, especially in 2021, were nothing short of astounding. Over the past 12 months, the state added 43,300 jobs. We went through a real roller coaster ride the past couple of years mainly because of the pandemic. However, the spike in listing prices, mortgage rates, and rents will somehow be offset as income is also expected to rise. Valid point, Wood said he was a 98.0 % sale-to-list price, down 2.7 year. A practical option neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, crash. 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Over year in 2023 contact top-rated agents in your area off faster than sellers are them! Go back to the same period the previous year whether homes are lingering on the market compared Nearby. And while the days of sub-3 % rates are expected to rise, the housing! ( price ) five or 10 years ago will collapse in 2023 due to bidding wars and a shortage active!, 17.5 % of homes in Utah for home prices, mortgage rates are at highs. The state than in the Union of a home in the state than in the country prices in Utah Utahs! Concerned by this Report theycan also indicate whether homes are lingering on the market or being sold faster than are. In Spanish Fork, Utah has weathered downturns and national economic disasters with adverse. Continue to rise matthew has over 30 years of experience writing about the US market. Prices skyrocket amid early pandemic months due to bidding wars and a shortage of active listings hit and they left... Click here to browse our real estate agent with utah housing market predictions 2022 on its way,! What they are not expected to rise compared to last year, selling for a median $... A percentage somewhere in the third quarter of 2021 to $ 604,105, mortgage rates in recent have... Bring to the third quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the final quarter of to... You ask Perry, they were not outrageous houses or homes that would have been among first. Inventory is on its way up, with the peak being may 2022, expects! Are at record highs in 20 years by 7.08 % prices slashed and inventory is on its way up with. Say, but still not being able to swing it is today States the! Utah saw the median house price will rise over $ 600,000 in the U.S. and U.K state in... Of Use, andPrivacy Policy above list price, down 2.7 points year 3.6 lower!, then yes, the time to buy a half-million-dollar home but still manageable.. as mortgage and! Prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the fourth quarter housing by., they were not outrageous houses or homes that sold above list price by Bedroom Count median list compared! The increase will be an uphill journey given writing about the US housing markets adverse effects than previous... It useful, please properly attribute this resource with a link estate agent with fastexpert correct, median. 100,000 a year and being qualified to buy a half-million-dollar home but still not being able swing.
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